A mere 60 days prior when the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager admonished him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained if Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause for the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. When Rogers swept in his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, now sit a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, while the victories have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club which has put together 10 in a row, Villa seem curiously susceptible – but right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more versus United.
His opener came from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the post from a wide position. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more efforts and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club must confront in the near future. The forward, surely, will not continue to thrashing his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the performer he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. As the hero positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
