Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
